Rate Lock Advisory

Monday, July 25th

Monday’s bond market has opened up slightly as stocks start the week in negative ground. The major indexes are showing moderate losses of 65 points in the Dow and 3 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently up 3/32 (1.55%), which should keep this morning’s mortgage rates at Friday morning’s levels.

3/32


Bonds


30 yr - 1.55%

65


Dow


18,505

3


NASDAQ


5,096

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium


Unknown


None

There is nothing of importance scheduled for today. In fact, it is the only day in the busy week that has nothing set that is relevant to mortgage pricing. The rest of the week brings us the release of six economic reports that may impact rates with one of them considered to be highly influential. In addition to the data, there is also another FOMC meeting that certainly has the potential to cause chaos in the markets and a couple of Treasury auctions that we will be watching.

Low


Unknown


New Home Sales

June's New Home Sales report will kick off this week’s calendar at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This Commerce Department report gives us another measurement of housing sector strength. Analysts are expecting it to show an increase in sales of newly constructed homes, indicating that the new home portion of the housing sector strengthened a little last month. That would be considered negative news for bonds, but since this data tracks only a small percentage of all home sales it usually has little impact on the bond market and mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts. Last week’s Existing Home Sales report covers most of the home sales in the U.S.

Medium


Unknown


Consumer Confidence Index (Conference Board)

Also late tomorrow morning, the Conference Board will release their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for July. This index measures consumer sentiment, giving us an idea of consumer willingness to spend. If consumers are more confident in their own financial and employment situations, they are apt to make large purchases in the near future. This is important because consumer spending makes up such a large portion of our economy. If the CCI reading is weaker than expected, meaning that consumers were less confident than thought and likely will delay making a large personal purchase, we may see bond prices rise and mortgage rates drop Tuesday morning. Current forecasts are calling for a reading of 96.0 which would be a weaker reading than June's 98.0 and indicate consumers are a little less comfortable with their finances than they were last month.

Medium


Unknown


None

Overall, I am expecting to see a very active week in the financial and mortgage markets. The most active day will probably be Wednesday due to the Durable Goods report and FOMC meeting, but it is worth noting that Friday’s GDP report can also cause plenty of volatility in the markets itself. There is little doubt that this is going to be an important week for mortgage rates, so it would be prudent to maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.